Predictions? or a poor understanding of it?

“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop - because women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their minds.

TIME, 1966, in one sentence writing off e-commerce long before anyone had ever heard of it.”

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Incorrect_predictions

http://www.2spare.com/item_50221.aspx

The prediction above is a classic example of the notion that opinions are rendered on behaviors that are predictive in nature without sufficiently investigating or understanding technologies vs. human behavior. The person/entity who made this prediction probably did not truly understand what was going on in the technology space at the time.

Indeed, technology and its use have come a long way, but there was no substantive basis given to support this prediction, so it begs the questions, what’s the accepted definition of a prediction and how must it be rendered for it to be valid?

As predicted above, the billions of dollars of products that women purchased yearly on the Internet is a typical refutation to poor predictions and or a misunderstanding of how predictions ought to be made and supported.

Regards,

Howard.

 

 

Predictions?

After reading through the Fortune Sellers, I could not help think about the work that we are doing relative to predictions and the approaches that different people use. Because different people make predictions for different reasons/motives/justifications, I am further convinced that at times predictions can be seen as just noise.

Further more, I often ask myself what’s the motives when I see/hear certain predictions? Usually they are self-explanatory, but I am usually concerned when those who are well respected in certain communities make predictions that are way off in left field.  Nonetheless, I feel that predictions can serve as an impetus to get the idea (creative and otherwise) juices flowing, which can impact the outcomes of predictions. 

I feel this way, as research is one method we use to obtain valuable information about challenges, areas for further research etc., which can be linked a prediction(s). The interesting thing is that we are not always aware of the new frontiers that are being explored until they are made public. When they are made public how do we tie (associate) them to predictions?

What should be the requirements for making predictions?

Should predictions be required to have a format to ensure that there is some validity and or basis for making them?

Who gets to decide if predictions have failed or passed and how should that be determined?

 

 

Regards,

 

Howard.

Howard's Ted Write up

Getting cars off the road and data into the skies

By

Robin Chase

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/robin_chase_on_zipcar_and_her_next_big_idea.html

Robin Chase, the founder of Zipcar presented a great proposition on. Reducing CO2, Road Congestion, cost of technology, reductions in car ownership cost etc. Her propositions included using available public (buses etc.) transportation and private devices such as portable wireless devices to form wireless mesh networks for inter state communication.

Some of the benefits that she proposed are:
• Reduced congestions.
• Reduced CO2 emissions
• Reduce driving cost
• Low communications cost.

These benefits can be achieved through congestion pricing, and a Wireless Interstate Mesh System to enable the communication. The economies of scale that can be realized from this proposition are:

• Greater utility of the transportation systems
• Just in time public transportation lookup and ticket purchasing.
• Increased social interaction through a carpooling system.
• Reduction in the mileage driven per year

Robin stressed that we should not wait. This needs to happen now and the Federal Government needs to get involved sooner than later.

CS-855 Introduction

1. Introduce yourself

Hi, my name is H and I am currently pursuing my Doctoral Degree in Computer Science - Enterprise Information Systems at Colorado Technical University. I have over 18 years hands on experience in various facets of IT (Wireless LAN, Security, Compliance, Networking Engineering, Implementation, Disaster Recovery, Policies etc,).

2. Identify your area of expertise or interest (real or desired)

With an extensive background in Information Technology, my true passion is in the Wireless Space and IT Security. As a child growing up in the carribean I was always intrigued by RF (Radio Frequency) even though I had no clue about telecommunications. In addition, I had no training in Physics in high school. Nonetheless, I was fortunate to earn my Masters Degree in Telecommunications and it paved the way for me to experience new frontiers in that regard. It is my goals to contribute to the body of knowledge and give back in some way within the telecommunications discipline.

3. Describe your dreams for what will be needed in 10-15 years

My ultimate dream is to pay off my mortgages, LoL. Moreover, relative to my career, I would like to be in a position where I can produce top-notch research, teach and share some of the knowledge that I have amassed during my tenure. In addition, I would like to stay on the cutting edge of Telecommunications and Security.

4. List two cool new technologies that you would like to pioneer

I am mindful of the limitations of RF relative to moisture. Moisture absorbs RF and causes RF signal attenuation and degradation etc, I

would like to be involved with cutting edge research that can resist RF signal absorbed by moisture.

Distance is another signal attenuating problem that plagues RF so repeaters are necessary to regenerate weak signals to make them readable by receivers. It will be very enlightening to be involved in research that would improve the attenuation issues that is prone to RF.

Regards,

Howard